8. Implementation Plan
Implementation planning describes overall project relationships and triggers (qualitative or quantitative), documenting a project-based implementation of the facilities and changes necessary to meet future demand over the planning horizon. The Capital Improvement Program (CIP), which demonstrates the financial feasibility of the projects identified as needed to meet aviation demand over the planning horizon, is presented in Section 9.
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8.1 Factors Affecting Implementation and Phasing
In general, implementation of the preferred development plan should be based on realized and trending demand, considering both magnitude and characteristics, and the need to provide additional capacity over the planning horizon. Ideally, projects would be implemented with adequate time to efficiently serve growing demand, but not so early that facilities would be significantly underutilized or not financially feasible. Similarly, management and operational policies can drive the optimization of facility utilization, influencing the scope and timing of future development, potentially altering the timing of development actions by allocating available capacity in a manner that optimizes and balances the use of existing facilities.
The ability to time implementation decisions correctly requires an understanding of the factors that trigger facility development, ongoing data monitoring and analysis to identify when actions should be taken, recognition of regulatory changes or policy implications, and an organizational structure and process to implement project planning and construction when demand dictates. Focused planning and programming as intermediate steps are critical, as projects must be refined and adjusted as warranted prior to the start of design and construction. Likewise, the timing of necessary environmental processing must be considered to ensure that project implementation is not adversely impacted. In timing implementation, the financial implications of development decisions, both individually and in the context of other development actions and investment needs, must also be considered.
8.1.1 VOLUME AND CHARACTER OF GROWTH
The volume and character of activity must be considered in determining when development should occur. Activity characteristics, such as the numbers of domestic passengers and international passengers, may require different improvements regardless of total passenger numbers. The numbers of operations by various sizes and types of aircraft also influence facility requirements. It is essential that all elements of activity be accounted for in overall activity monitoring and that the characteristics of that overall activity, especially project drivers, are understood.
Many different metrics are used to determine the volume and character of growth in any particular area of the Airport. For instance, overall performance of the airfield may be measured by average aircraft delay, annual
service volume, or another metric. Various statistics, appropriate to the type and characteristics of activity under review, need to be analyzed to determine the timing and detailed scope of RDU facilities development.
8.1.2 RELOCATION AND REPLACEMENT OF DISPLACED FACILITIES
While the Master Plan includes expansion areas to meet various needs, the future expansion of terminal, cargo, general aviation, and airfield facilities to meet specific demand could affect existing buildings or other
facilities. The need to minimize the disruption of Airport operations and tenant activities can influence project phasing. Therefore, detailed planning, design, and phasing analyses are ultimately necessary to ensure that
the operational impacts of any facility relocations or replacements are defined, communicated, and minimized.
8.1.3 REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES
Changes in technology, passenger and baggage processing, airline operating policies and procedures, and security requirements need to be considered in evaluating implementation decisions and timing, including current trends toward self-bag tagging, security inspection process improvements, automated international arrivals passenger processing steps, and related technologies for passengers and baggage. Technological changes can influence the specific facility requirements under consideration, with the potential to alter the size, capacity, or configuration of the specific improvement. Similarly, regulatory changes can alter the scope
or configuration of recommended improvements or, alternatively, introduce the need for previously undocumented or undefined improvements.
8.1.4 GENERAL CRITERIA FOR PLANNING IMPLEMENTATION
Several criteria should be considered when defining the phasing of development projects, including the
following:
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Allow sufficient time — This criterion includes completing the necessary planning, obtaining required regulatory reviews and approvals, coordinating with appropriate stakeholders, analyzing financial requirements, and undertaking final design and construction to ensure that the development project is in place and operational to meet demand. On many major projects, the time for this overall process, through project delivery, can span several years or considerably longer if full federal environmental review
under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) is required.
Minimize operational impacts — This criterion includes minimizing gate loss or other tenant impacts, minimizing closure of runways and taxiways to avoid the loss of interim capacity and/or the generation of
unnecessary or avoidable airfield congestion and delay, maintaining roadway and parking facility accessibility, maintaining an acceptable level of service for Airport tenants and users, and minimizing passenger inconvenience and confusion.
Maintain a logical sequence of development — Near-term development projects should be configured with consideration given to further long-term development, protecting the flexibility of future options and
minimizing the potential for future facility relocations or impacts.
8.1.5 IMPLEMENTATION INDICATORS
Various development projects will be triggered by certain levels and characteristics of activities. These “indicators” signal the impending need for additional or modified facilities given existing demand/capacity
relationships. Likewise, improvements to certain Airport facilities can trigger subsequent improvements to maintain the desired balance among airfield, terminal, landside, and support facilities.
8.1.5.1 Airfield Indicators
Several indicators can signal the need for additional airfield capacity. The most prominent indicator is average aircraft delay. When the Airport reaches a defined level of delay, planning for additional airfield capacity
should begin. The ALP for RDU depicts a relocated runway and an additional (third parallel) runway in its ultimate configuration. The ultimate timing of the full airfield development is undefined (beyond the 2040 planning horizon) and should eventually be specified by carefully considering characteristics of the entire airfield and its operational performance in the context of evolving air traffic procedures and technology,
aircraft fleet and capabilities, and other relevant factors. While benefit-cost analyses will typically be a determining factor in major airfield projects, industry experience and FAA planning criteria suggest that
anticipated average annual aircraft delays of more than 4 to 6 minutes per aircraft operation or aircraft operations that reach 60 percent to 65 percent of the airfield’s annual service volume should trigger the start of the detailed planning/environmental process to ensure airfield capacity is ultimately available when required for efficient operation.
Delayed taxiing operations resulting from congested Airport taxiways and aprons may warrant the expansion of other airfield facilities. Expansion of the aircraft hold pads may be required if the Airport is experiencing
queues at peak periods or aircraft holding/overnight parking that impacts gate access or airfield circulation.
8.1.5.2 Terminal/Gate Indicators
The timing for terminal/gate expansion or development will be based on airline demand for additional facilities, technology changes that influence passenger processing, the Authority’s use and lease policies, and the desired level of service for customers. Indicators related to terminal capacity, including excessive delays in passenger processing (e.g., security screening or international arrivals), reduced passenger levels of service (congestion, baggage claim delivery times, etc.), increased levels of sustained gate use (with limited time or ability to recover from irregular operations), and operational delays resulting from aircraft gate occupancy
(particularly relating to aircraft fleet evolution). In planning for future terminal facilities, airline characteristics, such as differences in operating procedures between low-cost and mainline carriers, ratio of domestic to
international passengers, aircraft fleet and load factors, and aircraft seat capacities must be considered. Given the relationship to terminal facilities, curbside demand and congestion will influence the need for and scope
of terminal improvements to ensure that curbside capacity is maintained in balance with the capacity of terminal components. Lead times of 2 years or more can be required in defining project timing.
8.1.5.3 Parking Indicators
The primary indicator for parking development is parking occupancy in the peak month. Expansion planning should be initiated when occupancy reaches 90 percent of total capacity, so that improvements can be in
place when needed. Other indicators may include rate of growth, type of growth, and the introduction or maturation of other forms/modes of transportation to the Airport. Airport management and operating
policies will influence the indicators for additional parking development, particularly as off-Airport parking facilities or alternative access modes may emerge/grow to temper the demand for additional on-Airport
parking.
8.1.5.4 General Aviation Indicators
The numbers of private and corporate based aircraft are indicators of the potential need for GA facilities development. Tenant demand typically signals the need for additional GA facilities. Fixed base operator business models, investments, and customer base can influence the demand for GA facility growth. Similarly, growth in the number of GA aircraft operations and based aircraft can indicate the need to initiate planning
for hangar or apron expansion. The expansion of GA facilities will also depend on the amount of activity and demand accommodated by reliever and general aviation airports in the Raleigh-Durham area.
8.1.5.5 Cargo Indicators
Cargo facility development is driven largely by tenant demand. Assessing the growth of such indicators as cargo tonnage, cargo aircraft operations, and fleet mix, the Authority can anticipate demand and planning for
cargo tenant expansion at the Airport. Regulations, such as the requirements for cargo security screening, will also influence the need for and timing of cargo and related facilities.
8.1.5.6 Support Facilities Indicators
Airline fleets and equipment, food service, ground service equipment, maintenance activities, and other factors have the potential to influence the demand for support facilities. Given the diversity of support
facilities, there can be substantial variation in the associated development triggers. Consistent communication and maintaining awareness of facility utilization, changes in tenant operations, and other metrics will help
ensure the need for support facilities is identified with sufficient time for organized and efficient implementation.
8.2 Phased Development Schedule
A summary of the conceptual phased development of the Master Plan recommended projects over the 2040
planning horizon has been developed to identify development triggers that may indicate when facilities are operationally required to meet forecast demand. Table 8.2–1 summarizes the overall conceptual phased
development over the 2040 planning horizon, encompassing all projects identified in the Master Plan Study.
In some cases, development is triggered by considerations other than demand/activity. The table lists major projects and associated enabling and supporting projects that are predicted to be required during the planning horizon. The projects reflect ultimate development predicted as necessary to
meet the high growth scenario; however, the timing and scope of these projects may be modified through the advanced planning and design process as additional information and analyses are available. This refined
planning/design will determine whether any efficiencies or operational changes are available that mayinfluence the enabling and supporting project requirements, as well as reassess the characteristics of the triggering activity to determine whether all identified enabling projects are required.
Each project is identified as demand-driven development, safety/regulatory development, maintenance- related (preservation of existing infrastructure), or discretionary development. The table also indicates whether the project would be needed in the short-term (0–5 years), medium-term (6–10 years), or the long- term (11–25 years), which is explained in greater detail in Section 8.3. The preliminary estimated construction costs for the listed projects, utilized in the financial analysis, are provided in the table. These construction costs are in 2017 dollars and include associated soft costs (contingency, general conditions, design, construction and program management, testing/commissioning, and related and miscellaneous project costs).
Based on the financial analysis summarized in Section 9, projects were grouped to reflect anticipated financial limitations given the need for overall capital expenditures. The following groupings were defined:
Critical Infrastructure Preservation Projects — This category encompasses projects funded by the Authority that are essential to maintaining critical infrastructure (runways, taxiways, aprons, and roadways). It also includes projects that are essential to maintaining passenger terminal and parking
facilities to desired standards.
Discretionary Infrastructure Projects — This category encompasses airport projects funded by the
Authority that are driven by an increase in customer demand for commercial aviation services and may or
may not be implemented as defined in Vision 2040. These projects include terminal, landside, and support facilities.
Private Equity Infrastructure Projects -This category encompasses projects that are not captured as Critical or Discretionary Infrastructure Projects and are anticipated to require private financing to accomplish. Not all of the private equity projects may be implemented over the 2040 planning horizon,
but will be undertaken in response to demand. These projects include general aviation facilities and supporting infrastructure.
Deferred Infrastructure Projects — This category encompasses projects that would be funded by the Authority, driven by an increase in customer demand for commercial aviation services, and may or may not be implemented as defined in Vision 2040. These projects, which include airside, terminal, landside, and support facilities, would be funding as financing mechanism are identified and implementation may be deferred beyond 2040.
Projects anticipated to be required beyond the 2040 planning horizon are summarized in Table 8.2–2. The timing of facility construction is heavily dependent on decisions by the Authority, as well as factors such
as technology changes, evolving regulatory requirements, demand magnitude and characteristics, and airline decisions. Consequently, it is not appropriate to assume that all facilities in the table will be constructed by
2040 since the Authority engages a strategy of implementing projects as needed and justified, and when financially feasible. Similarly, the facility requirements that serve as the foundation for phased development of facilities to meet forecast demand were prepared based on the forecast of aviation activity (baseline and high growth scenarios) with the baseline forecast approved by the FAA in 2015. Actual activity is currently tracking
above the baseline forecast of activity and it is likely to continue to fluctuate relative to the baseline forecast
over the 2040 horizon. Consequently, projects characterized in Table 8.2–1 as short-, medium-, or long-term needs may shift between the time frames as actual activity or other factors trigger implementation action.
Improvements categorized as short-term needs may not be triggered within the next 5 years (through 2022) as designated in Table 8.2–1 due to airline decisions or other factors that influence timing of facility
improvements.
8.2.1 DEMAND-DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
In the case of demand-driven development, the timing of project implementation is based on the characteristics and magnitude of actual and forecast demand. As actual demand may vary from the forecasts,
the phased implementation plan includes triggers that reflect the point at which specific improvements are required to be operational in order to meet demand at the desired level of service. This approach provides the Airport Authority the flexibility to respond effectively to actual demand as it materializes rather than making development decisions on a calendar-based schedule. Through regular monitoring and data analysis and an understanding of the impacts of various airline and industry trends, the Authority can respond strategically to meet customer needs at an acceptable level of service by developing demand-driven facilities in a timely manner.
8.2.2 SAFETY/REGULATORY DEVELOPMENT
Some projects listed in the phased implementation plan are driven by the need to meet safety or regulatory requirements, identified in the demand trigger column in Table 8.2–1 as “Safety/Regulatory Development.” An
example of a potential regulatory project would be the modifications of Taxiway A to comply with current FAA airfield geometry standards. An example of a safety project would be the reconfiguration of the intersection
of Taxiway C with Runway 5R-23L, mitigating an FAA-recognized hot spot on the airfield. Recognized safety/regulatory development projects are documented on the Airport Layout Plan; however, future changes to FAA standards or other regulatory guidance may generate future capital improvements.
8.2.3 MAINTENANCE-RELATED DEVELOPMENT
Some projects are identified as maintenance-related, reflecting an engineering assessment of the current condition of Authority assets, projected rates of deterioration, or other engineering considerations. An example of a maintenance-related project is the rehabilitation of Runway 14–32, based on its existing condition and an analysis of the project pavement performance as part of a pavement management plan. Monitoring the condition and capabilities of existing Authority assets is necessary to ensure that the timing of defined projects is adjusted if needed. Additionally, there may be additional future maintenance-related projects that are ultimately identified based on changes in activity, engineering analyses, or other factors.
8.2.4 DISCRETIONARY DEVELOPMENT
Several projects in the phased implementation plan are identified as discretionary development. These projects lack specific demand triggers because either detailed analysis was not undertaken as part of the
Master Plan Study or these projects are not required for operational purposes. An example of a discretionary development project is the development of the East General Aviation Campus. While the Authority has identified and will preserve that area of the airfield for future small/private general aviation facilities, the timing of that development will be a function of expressed demand and/or FBO plans over the 2040 horizon.
8.3 Master Plan Development Plan and Projects
The implementation plan in Table 8.2–1 identifies short-term (approximate 0–5 year time frame), medium-term (approximately 6–10 year time frame), and long-term (approximate 11–25 year time frame) projects based on
the 2040 baseline and high growth scenario forecasts presented in Section 3. The division between short-, medium-, and long-range projects is made for purposes of characterizing development that has a higher
likelihood of justification and implementation in the near- and medium-term; however, it is important to recognize that these are approximate and dynamic divisions. The implementation of any project is heavily dependent on activity growth and characteristics. Additionally, many projects can be implemented incrementally (e.g., parking, RON pads, concourse extensions, support
facilities) with initial construction supplemented by subsequent expansions as justified by growing or changing activity. Despite uncertainties in the aviation industry, sensitivity to economic conditions, evolving
airline business models, optimization of system capacity, and other factors that can influence demand, actual activity is tracking somewhat ahead of the FAA-approved forecast. Should this continue (or reverse), projects
characterized in the following sections as short-, medium-, or long-term needs may shift among these time frames as actual activity and other factors trigger implementation action. Alternatively, facility improvements may still be undertaken within the noted timeframes, but at a lesser scale if demand materializes differently than forecast.
8.3.1 SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT (0–5 YEAR TIME FRAME)
The following major capacity-related projects are currently anticipated to be justified within the next 5 years (through approximately 2023). These facilities and projects are designated for implementation in the short-
term and are summarized in Table 8.3–1 and depicted on Exhibit 8.3–1.
8.3.1.1 Airfield
Runway 5L-23R (Al)
This project entails reconstruction and relocation of Runway SL-23R and associated taxiways (crossover taxiways). This runway, the Airport’s primary runway, requires reconstruction due to accelerating pavement
deterioration. Relocation at the time of reconstruction would facilitate compliance with current FAA standards, provide incremental capacity benefits through reduced runway occupancy times, and accommodate future expansion of Terminal 2. As the longest runway at the Airport, Runway SL -23R supports operations by large aircraft, particularly long range flights (e.g., transatlantic).
Taxiway F Rehabilitation (AX-1 and AX-2)
Recognizing that the central portion of Taxiway F was rehabilitated in 2011, under this project the remaining two Taxiway F segments would be rehabilitated due to pavement condition.
